Blazers television analyst Mike Rice analyzes the way to win the Western Conference playoffs

The question to answer going into the 2008 playoffs is: Will the quality of play in the Western Conference regular season carry over to the playoffs? When you have eight teams with at least 50 wins you have to figure each series will be Hall of Fame quality.

What we are coming to understand is you better not lose any home games.

Every team thinks they are capable of winning the whole thing and every fan base thinks their team should win the whole thing. That puts a lot of pressure on all eight teams. In fact, this is the type of playoffs that historically result in the first round losers making big changes during the summer after the loss.

Everyone figures they lost in the first round, so changes are a must. If you make the wrong move like the Blazers did after their loss to the Lakers in the Western Conference Finals a few years ago, it takes a lot of time to get back to the championship caliber.

Now that the Blazers are trying to put the pieces together for a championship run, let’s take a look at the eight playoff teams and see what they have that the Blazers didn’t.

Every team in the playoffs must have to two things to be successful first round winners.

They must have a point guard that knows how to operate the famous pick and roll play. You can do this a number of ways with quickness, shooting ability and strength. If you point guard has all three of these qualities, you’re a playoff contender.

The other main strength your team must have is the ability to defend the pick and roll.

It’s not as easy as it looks on both ends of the court. Sebastian Telfair never did get it right with the Blazers on the offensive end. He would dribble when he should have been passing, and shooting when he should have been dribbling.

Steve Nash, Deron Williams, Chris Paul, Tony Parker and Jason Kidd all make it look so easy in the West. The teams that don’t have a great pick and roll guard, such as the Lakers, Rockets and Nuggets, all have superstar scorers that can go one-on-one by themselves. Guys like Kobe Bryant, Tracy McGrady and Allan Iverson and Carmello Anthony.

So we know that the Blazers are now looking at their results from this years pick and roll offense to see what needs to be changed.

On the defensive end, the Blazers will be going up against a lot of great point guards and scorers in the West. What do they need to change to step up to playoff level defense next year?

They have a head start in this area because the talent is there to become an instant success on defending the most used offensive weapon on every NBA team, the dreaded pick and roll.

For one, LaMarcus Aldridge worked for the last two years on his offensive game a great deal of the time. Now he will have time to fully develop his defensive skills. In this area he could become another Kevin Garnett. LaMarcus can move really well, he has length and excellent quickness to jump out to stop the dribbler on the pick and roll.

The way the Boston Celtics won 66 games this year was more on the defensive end than the offensive end. Boston became the best defensive team in the NBA thanks to Kevin Garnett giving so much support for his team mates on the pick and roll play.

The Blazers have two possible great pick and roll defenders in Greg Oden and LaMarcus Aldridge. If Martell Webster, Travis Outlaw and Brandon Roy give some extra effort on the defensive end like Paul Pierce, Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo did for the Celtics, the Blazers should be the most improved team in the NBA on the defensive end.

Once you master the defense on the pick and roll you can start pressuring on the wings to get turnovers and get pressure on the shooters to force bad shots that will lead to more fast break points. The eight teams that made the playoffs were able to take advantage of points off turnovers and got some easy fast break points.

Now let’s take a look at the Western Conference Playoffs at this point.

The Lakers look good because Kobe Bryant is playing within Phil Jackson’s game plan. Denver looks bad because they need the home court to score a lot of points because they don’t play playoff defense. George Karl has lost this team on the defensive end. His best players have not bought into any team concepts on the defensive end.

The Houston/Utah series got going when Rafer Alston came back at the point and beat Utah with excellent team defense and excellent shot selection. Utah will still win the series but the Rockets are showing Rick Adelman can coach.

The New Orleans/Dallas series will turn into a home court complete series. I don’t think either team can best the other team on their court. Chris Paul will be the difference in game seven and New Orleans will move on to play the Spurs.

The Spurs and Suns series also will be a home court affair. It will go seven games and the Spurs will win because Tony Parker and Ginobilli will take turns working the pick and roll and will beat the best pick and roll point guard of all time, Steve Nash.

I will update the second round and the Eastern Conference playoff in the next article.