The NBA Finals tip-off tonight at 8 p.m. (CT) with familiar foes in the Celtics and Lakers fighting it out for the title. As part of Bucks.com’s coverage of the NBA’s closing series, we’ve recruited Milwaukee assistant coaches Bill Peterson and Joe Wolf to provide analysis and get everyone ready for the Finals.
To break down each team we assigned Bill Peterson the coaching responsibilities for the Celtics and Joe Wolf the Lakers. Each coach gave us three keys that they think their adopted club could use to win the championship. They also gave us three concerns that could cause problems over the course of the series. After the first two games of the Finals, we’ll revisit these keys and concerns with each coach and provide an update prior to the third game when the series shifts to the West Coast.
To augment each of the coaches’ arguments, Bucks.com has provided a note about each key and concern.
Joe Wolf - Lakers
Key #1: Kobe Bryant
Offensively, I think it’s too difficult to stop Kobe Bryant. So number one is to get him the ball.
Note: No one’s been able to stop Kobe in the playoffs. He leads all NBA players with 31.9 points per game in the postseason, 3.7 points more than second-place LeBron James (28.2). Not only is Bryant scoring at a high rate, he’s also finding his teammates with an average of 5.8 dimes per tilt (11th in the playoffs). Those numbers are an increase of his regular season MVP numbers of 28.3 points and 5.4 assists. He’s doing it all while also increasing his field goal percentage (50.9 in the playoffs compared to 45.9 in the regular season) and getting to the line slightly more often (9.7 FTA per game to 9.1).
Key #2: Offensive rebounding
Number two is the Lakers ability on the offensive glass between Pau Gasol, Lamar Odom and Turiaf if he gets in there. Their energy guys will get the Lakers a lot of extra opportunities.
Note: Gasol (2.9) and Odom (2.3) lead the Lakers in offensive rebounds per game in the playoffs. (Kevin Garnett is the leader for Boston at 2.5 per contest). Those numbers might be higher except the Lakers don’t receive as many chances on the offensive glass because they’re the top scoring and field goal shooting team in the postseason. So any second chance opportunities they get just add to an already potent offensive attack and make the club that much more difficult to defeat.
Key #3: Lakers bench scoring
The Lakers bench scoring will be big, I think their reserves are more of an offensive group than the Celtics.
Note: This series features the postseason’s top scoring offense – Los Angeles 105.9 points per game – against the postseason’s top defense – Boston 87.3 points per game allowed. If the Lakers bench comes in and picks up where the starters leave off, it would be huge. Sasha Vujacic has been the Lakers top scoring reserve with 8.1 points in 21.5 minutes of action. He’s hitting 40.2 percent of his field goals, but knocks down 41.1 percent of his three pointers. Speaking of three pointers, fellow reserve Luke Walton has hit 9-20 attempts for 45.0 percent.
Concern #1: Kevin Garnett
Kevin Garnett’s leadership, energy and enthusiasm carrying the Celtics.
Note: Kevin Garnett leads Boston in points (21.1), rebounds (9.8), steals (1.3) and minutes (38.0) in the postseason. He’s even contributing 3.5 assists and 1.2 blocks to the Celtics cause. Because he does so many different things, he can impact a game in more ways than most players. If he continues to put up those numbers, it could cause some huge problems for Los Angeles.
Concern #2: Ray Allen
Ray Allen’s shooting could be big for Boston.
Note: Ray Allen has averaged 14.2 points for the Celtics and has, at times, gone in shooting slumps. Although he’s shooting 40.3 percent from the field and 34.0 percent from the field, he’s still pretty much automatic from the free throw line at 93.5 percent (58-62) and history suggests his shooting numbers will rise. Including postseason games entering the finals (57 total), Allen has shot 45.7 percent from the field and 40.8 percent from the three point line for his career in the postseason. Boston has been winning with him off his game, they’ll be that much better if his numbers improve.
Concern #3: Paul Pierce
The Lakers defense needs to be concerned with Paul Pierce penetrating to the hoop to score or create.
Note: Pierce is second on the Boston club with 19.0 points per game on 44.3 percent shooting from the field and 35.2 percent from three. He’s also grabbing 5.1 rebounds, handing out 4.1 dimes and adding 1.1 steals. When he gets to the rim it makes the game that much easier for his teammates and provides a team that is 11th out of 16 teams in postseason scoring (91.6 points) with some offense.
Bill Peterson - Celtics
Key #1: Interior post defense
I’d try to exploit the Lakers post defense with Pau Gasol and Lamar Odom. I don’t think their defense will be strong enough to contain Kevin Garnett.
Note: As we mentioned above, Garnett leads the Celtics in several different categories in the postseason and he also leads the team with 33 field goal attempts (Paul Pierce and Ray Allen follow with 282 and 238 respectively). So it’s safe to say Boston will get the ball to Garnett since he’s responded to the team-leading field goal attempts by leading the club with 21.1 points per game. He’s also shooting 51.7 percent from the floor which is second only to Kendrick Perkins for Boston and ranks him 11th in the NBA during the playoffs.
Key #2: Make Kobe Bryant work on D
The second thing I’d do is attack Kobe Bryant with Paul Pierce when Boston has the ball to get Kobe in foul trouble and limit his effectiveness. Things like posting up Pierce and bringing him off screens to make Kobe expend a lot of energy – especially in the post.
Note: Pierce isn’t a bad second option to Garnett on offense and if he can get Bryant in foul trouble to maybe make him more hesitant, it’s all the better for Boston. Pierce’s size could pay off in this matchup, he’s listed at 6-7 and 235 pounds while Bryant is listed at 6-6 and 205 pounds. The extra weight could payoff in the post, as Peterson mentioned and it could lead to extra points for Boston while decreasing Kobe’s numbers on the offensive end.
Key #3: Send Rajon Rondo to the hoop
The third thing I’d do is have Rajon Rondo attack the basket more on drives because the Lakers lack a shot blocker. Gasol and Odom aren’t really shot blockers. When the help defense comes Rondo would be able to dish and get some easy baskets.
Note: Rondo leads the Celtics with 6.6 assists per game and has posted an impressive 3.47:1 assist-to-turnover ratio. Those numbers are an improvement from his regular season averages of 5.1 assists and 2.67:1. So Rando has shown that he’s capable of being a playmaker and floor general in the playoffs. His generating more and easier offense for Boston would go a long way in helping close the gap between the Lakers 105.9 points per game average in the playoffs and the Celtics 91.6.
Concern #1: Transition defense
You have to get back in transition defense. That’s huge because the Lakers are so good in uptempo play when Kobe has the ball. You can’t give up a lot easy baskets and beat the Lakers. They’re very good in the full court.
Note: As we mentioned earlier, the Lakers have the best offense in the NBA during the postseason and it will be an interesting matchup with the Celtics own the league’s best playoff defense. Not only is Bryant the Lakers (and the NBA’s) top scorer in the playoffs, but he’s also leading the squad with 5.8 assists per game. Los Angeles can be a tough team to defend because many of their players know how to pass – Gasol and Odom are second and third on the team with 4.2 and 2.9 assists per game, respectively in the playoffs. Easy baskets for the Lakers usually lead to big wins.
Concern #2: Lakers bench scoring
I’d be really concerned with the Lakers bench players. They can really score. Their guys come off the bench shooting – Sasha Vujacic can score and Luke Walton can score and Jordan Farmar is also a scorer. They have a lot more scoring ability with their reserves than Boston does.
Note: Another topic that was mentioned earlier, the Lakers are a team that’s geared to beat their opponents with offense while the Celtics rely on their defense. However, Los Angeles gains a huge edge in the fact that they can get some hoops from their reserves if a starter is struggling while Boston may have to look harder for help putting the ball in the basket if their starters aren’t getting it done.
Concern #3: Kobe Bryant
You have to be worried about Kobe Bryant because he’s capable of going off at any time and getting 40. If you have a guy going off and getting 40 or 45, that means the rest of the guys only have to score 45-50 points and they’re going to win the game. You have to contain Kobe and limit him from having a really, really big night. If I’m attacking him at the other end with Pierce, hopefully that wouldn’t happen.
Note: Many people are saying this series revolves around Kobe – and the numbers we listed above give good reason for that. Bryant has been compared to Michael Jordan in these playoffs and he could be good enough to lead the Lakers to a title on his own. The hope that Paul Pierce can maybe add some points to his 19.0 playoff average while taking Kobe down a few from 31.9 would be huge. If that matchup is closer, it allows Boston to capitalize on their matchup advantages at other positions.
It’s interesting that our coaches hit on a few familiar topics in their keys and concerns. With Joe Wolf stressing Kobe Bryant as key #1 for the Lakers offense, Bill Peterson recognized that in his Boston analysis by having make Bryant work on defense as his second key and also giving him a lot of attention in his concerns. As the series unfolds we’ll see if the Lakers set up Bryant to impose his will on Boston or if the Celtics will go with Peterson’s advice and try to get #8 in foul trouble and wear him down with Paul Pierce.
Another topic that both coaches mentioned was the Lakers bench. Joe Wolf stressed that as an advantage he’d use and Bill Peterson listed it as concern #2. Both coaches recognize that the Celtics may not have enough fire power with their reserves to stay with the Lakers. So we’ll see if that holds true and, if it does, if Boston can compensate with big performances from their trio of Allen, Pierce and Garnett.
Bill Peterson listed Kevin Garnett’s matchup against the Lakers front line as his #1 key for winning the series. It was Peterson’s #1 key and Joe Wolf’s #1 concern. Garnett does it all for the Celtics and if it’s an area that plays out like Peterson would think for the Celtics and Wolf would fear for the Lakers, that’s a big, big plus for Boston and could shift things toward the Celtics.
The last point both coaches mentioned was Paul Pierce. Joe Wolf feared what he could do penetrating to the hoop and Bill Peterson saw him as the Celtics hope to try to contain Kobe Bryant. In Wolf’s caution of Pierce penetrating on the Lakers D, Peterson also suggested that Rondo would be able to penetrate and cause problems – so that’s another area to watch as the Finals progress.
With all of that analysis, we’ll leave it to the Lakers and Celtics from here. With our analysts Peterson and Wolf watching the first two games from the series, we’ll check back for a look at what happened during the first two contests and report on what did and didn’t work and see what types of adjustments could be made for each club as the series shifts to Los Angeles for game three. Check back with Bucks.com for updates and enjoy the games.