By Jon Loomer Before I get to Saturday's Expert Pick, it's not a bad time to evaluate how the Experts are doing through nearly a full round of the Playoffs. We've had our ups and downs, but overall the first round has been quite a success. You look at our 3,894 ranking, and you giggle. That's ok. Giggle. The plan is working. Take a look at the current leaderboard, my friend. It's a who's who of "DTF Rabbits" -- Those who pick the best player on each day without thought to planning and strategy. The current number one team has already picked Chris Paul, Dwight Howard, LeBron James, Kobe Bryant, Tim Duncan, Kevin Garnett, and Richard Hamilton. I know, right??!! Great players, but five of these players have advanced to the next round, and the other two are expected to follow. Not to mention, all but Howard are on teams expected to be Finals contenders. What does that mean? This team will drop like a rock once we get into later rounds. On the other hand, we've only picked players on teams likely to be eliminated. So far, we've been exactly right. We've picked players from the Nuggets (Carmelo and Iverson), Mavericks (Nowitzki and Kidd), 76ers (Iguodala), Suns (Nash and Stoudemire), Rockets (McGrady, down 3-2), Wizards (Jamison and Butler, down 3-2) and Raptors (Bosh). All of these teams are done. We've also selected players from the Hawks (Joe Smith, Joe Johnson, and Al Horford, tied 3-3). We have yet to select a player from a team expected to advance (although that Boston series is looking mighty scary!). Taking players on the best teams early provides little upside. It's not as if The Experts won't be picking them. We will, but later. While we're selecting players like LeBron, Kobe, Duncan, Paul, et al in this or later rounds, people like the current leader will be selecting from the leftovers. Don't get me wrong, we've had some bad luck along the way. And it was bad luck. We've picked all of the "right" players on the "right" teams, but in some cases it just happened to be on the "wrong" day. I know, I know. "You're the experts, you should know when is the right day." Really? It's Game 2 of Washington - Cleveland. Antawn Jamison had a 44 PRA in Game 1. Nothing has changed. Still in Cleveland. Whom do you pick? We picked Jamison. He got us a 19 PRA. Such is life. But, I'm not making excuses. Make no mistake, luck is a factor in this game. The goal, though, is to control what you have control over. Do everything you can to keep your options open. The more you cut into your options, the more you have to rely on luck to carry you. Just saying. Let me give a shout out to Orlando for ending their series with Toronto on Monday. If they hadn't, we'd have only one match-up to choose from on Saturday: New Orleans vs. San Antonio. I was seriously struggling with this one. San Antonio has the edge in experience, and may be the favorite. New Orleans lacks experience, but has home court and proved in the first round they are ready to play. Considering the Hornets simply have more options than do the Spurs, I probably would have gone with Chris Paul. But needless to say, I'm thankful that I don't need to make that choice yet. That doesn't mean that Orlando's a slam dunk to be eliminated this round. They won two of three against the Pistons in the regular season. Still, I just feel a whole lot more confident about it. Detroit proved to be vulnerable against Philadelphia in the first round, but let's just say their performance on Thursday shows they are now wide awake and ready to compete. Immediately, you see the advantage of not picking Howard in the first round. If you had, you're either picking one of Rashard Lewis/Hedo Turkoglu (more than a 10 PRA difference) or having to make an early decision on San Antonio - New Orleans. I'll happily take Dwight now, thank you. In fact, while we can pick any player on either team Saturday, the current top team can't pick Dwight Howard, Chris Paul, Tim Duncan or Richard Hamilton. I'd consider that a significant advantage for The Experts -- not only for Saturday but for the entire round and beyond. It doesn't get any easier from here on out, folks. The pretenders are gone. Picking favorites in Game 1's will be a chore. There will only be a maximum of two games on most days this round to choose from, and on some days only one. There will be surprises along the way. But that's why you'll need as many options as possible to make it through. And, in case you forgot, we have options. Dwight Howard is our option today, baby. Bring it home, Superman. Play Drive to the Finals Now!

Dwight Howard, ORLWhen: Saturday, May 3 at 7:30 p.m. ET Opponent: @ Detroit Pts: 22.6 Reb: 18.2 Ast: 1.6 Playoffs Average PRA: 42.4 Yesterday's Pick: Al Horford, ATL Expert Pick Playoffs Total: 420 Expert Pick Archive 1. Rashard Lewis, ORL @ DET (31.8 PRA) 2. Hedo Turkoglu, ORL @ DET (31.0 PRA) 3. Chris Paul, NOH vs. SAS (42.2 PRA) You could make the argument that going with Lewis or Turkoglu now and saving Howard for a home game could maximize points. It can work. However, there is some risk involved. I always choose to start with a team's best player in the first two rounds because a short series can make a mess of your plans. You never want to leave a player like Dwight Howard on the table, whereas it's possible you'll never use one of Lewis or Turkoglu if this series ends in four. If you have more confidence in San Antonio advancing than you do Detroit, go with Paul. If you take Paul, there are four other reasonable options to pick from if the Hornets were to get through this round and, say, into the Finals. So there is some cushion there if you feel like taking a risk. Dwight Howard is warmed up and ready to go. (Eliot J. Schechter/Getty Images)