By Jon Loomer First things, first. THANK YOU, CARLOS BOOZER! Great game last night for The Experts. We'll take that 50 PRA, although it was easy to get greedy and disappointed when you missed those two late free throws. The Experts have been boring and predictable thus far, but boring and predictable is often successful. We stick to the strategy, and over the course of the Playoffs it will pay off. I've covered this in the Fantasy Blog, but playing the percentages will often appear to backfire when you evaluate one game or a small sample size of games. Despite the fact that several of our choices have under performed, all players we've selected on the whole have played to their PRA average. And that, ultimately, is what you expect. You can hope for more, but hoping relies on luck. Some will be lucky, some unlucky. If you follow the general strategy of picking players on teams being eliminated, you will succeed. You may choose a different order of selecting players in the current round than we do, but luck will be a major factor in whether timing was better or worse for you. This will all be crystal clear by the end of the NBA Finals. I'm just telling you what we've learned the last two seasons. Hopefully by now, most of you know to save players on the teams advancing to the next round. I've also heard talk of saving top players in a particular round until the favorite is clear. I don't get that. Outside of a few rare exceptions, there is little advantage to saving a player from a team once you've determined you need to dip into that team's player pool. I've heard some say we should have saved Deron Williams and not used him in Game 1, opting instead for Carlos Boozer or Mehmet Okur. Why? Let's say the Jazz come back and win the series. You don't pick Deron Williams now and instead use him next round. So what? Either way, you dipped into the Jazz. Whether you used Williams in Game 1 of this round or next round (if they actually advanced), you still cut into your Jazz pool. What we're trying to avoid here is a late round dilemma. If you choose to reserve players on teams you are otherwise picking from, you could inevitably be faced with a day on which there are two elimination games involving two top players you've reserved -- thus potentially forcing you to leave a top player on the table. If you start from the top down, there is no risk. You use every player you hope to use, and leave it to the fantasy gods whether they have big games or not. You can reserve players in some rare situations (and we do), but careful planning needs to be involved. It's really not all that complicated, but it will all become clear soon. Of course, if Utah or Orlando advance at this point, we're in trouble -- but there will be a very large group joining us in that boat. So how about Saturday? We've got two options, Detroit at Orlando and Boston at Cleveland. Detroit leads Orlando 2-1 and Boston leads Cleveland 2-0. The Chauncey Billups injury could cause a major problem (or opportunity -- see to the right) for The Experts. That said, there was really no better time for him to get hurt. As long as the Pistons protect their home court, they'll advance. And if Billups isn't available for Game 3 and the Magic prevail, no big deal. As long as Billups is healthy and ready for home games. You'll remember that we are saving LeBron James for Game 4. Yes, this is a mini contradiction to my diatribe about starting with the best players. However, there are special circumstances here. On Monday, there will be only one game to choose from -- Boston at Cleveland. Also considering James is the best Drive to the Finals option on the planet, we wanted to maximize his points at home. Considering how dreadful he's performed in Boston, that appears to have been a smart move. Since the Cleveland - Boston series could go four games, there is no reason to dip into players like Delonte West if we have better options in the Detroit - Orlando series. And we do. Two of them. So far, we've picked Dwight Howard and Hedo Turkoglu. That leaves us with Rashard Lewis (32.1 PRA) and Jameer Nelson (25.5). No, one loss at home by the Pistons does not force us to scramble and start picking Pistons. So there you have it. Best player available on the Magic, at home. Go with Lewis and prosper. Play Drive to the Finals Now!

Rashard Lewis, ORLWhen: Saturday, May 10 at 5 p.m. ET Opponent: vs. Detroit Pts: 20.8 Reb: 7.5 Ast: 3.9 Playoffs Average PRA: 32.1 Yesterday's Pick: Carlos Boozer, UTA Expert Pick Playoffs Total: 609 Expert Pick Archive 1. Jameer Nelson, ORL vs. DET (25.5 PRA) 2. Rodney Stuckey, DET @ ORL (12.2 PRA) 3. LeBron James, CLE vs. BOS (43.0 PRA) Jameer isn't a bad option, but he's really not a choice if you still have Lewis available. I'll say this. If Chauncey Billups doesn't play on Saturday, give serious thought to picking Rodney Stuckey. Even if he gets in the low 20s. Although you would typically select from the team you expect to be eliminated, taking Stuckey was never really an option -- at least not one of your top four on the Pistons. By picking him when he gets a start, you maximize your points for him while saving all other options on the Pistons and Magic. Of course, you could take LeBron, but I wouldn't recommend it given the Monday showcase game. Rashard Lewis is going to keep The Experts' roll goin'. (D. Lippitt/Einstein/NBAE/Getty Images)