Drive to the Finals Expert Pick: 5/15/08
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By Ben Couch

Sooo, Thursday there's a whole ... one game on the schedule Thursday, which means that we're choosing between two teams:

The New Orleans Hornets and the San Antonio Spurs.

But this is Game 6, which means one team (New Orleans) is leading the series 3-2 ... and that the other (San Antonio) is facing elimination.

Unless you're feeling bold, and that experience (four championships in nine years) will outweigh homecourt advantage (Game 7 at the New Orleans Arena), we're left with one roster to browse:

That of the Spurs.

And since I burned Tim-my!! on May 8 (32 PRA), and Ben Zani took TP on Sunday, Manu's the man.

Manu Ginobili has put up a playoff PRA (27.3) right in line with his regular-season total (28.8). The Spurs' sixth man (and league's best) all season will be starting his fourth consecutive game for San Antonio, which seeks a strong performance to follow Tuesday's 22-point loss. With major minutes in Manu's future, he's likely to score no lower than the 24 PRA he put up in Game 4.

And despite shooting 10-28 in Games 4 and 5, if he approaches his season average of .460 from the floor, he'll be pushing his playoff high of 41 (Game 3). It should be noted Ginobili has no fewer than six assists in each semifinal game.

However, if you think this series is going to Game 7, you might want to take David West now, so you can use Chris Paul in the elimination game and not feel bad about leaving Manu on the bench. Ginobili vs. West would be a much tougher decision to make. The risk you run, of course, is New Orleans winning and you being stuck with a mediocre player later on, knowing you could've had the surely solid PRA Manu will post tonight and a potential Game 7.

Due to the situational circumstances, Manu's your man. Trust me.

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Manu Ginobili, SASWhen: Thursday, May 15 at 9 p.m. ET
Opponent: at New Orleans
Pts: 18.9 Reb: 3.9 Ast: 4.5
Playoffs Average PRA: 27.3
Yesterday's Pick: Wally Szczerbiak, CLE
Expert Pick Playoffs Total: 790
Expert Pick Archive
1. David West, NOH vs. SAS (34.3 PRA)
2. Chris Paul, NOH vs. SAS (40.8 PRA)
3. Peja Stojakovic, NOH vs. SAS (20.9 PRA)
Manu's the only remaining PRA man of relevance for San Antonio -- Michael Finley is next at 10.7, brutally low considering the big guns available -- so you're looking down the Hornets roster if you think the Spurs are moving on.

With you predicting there are only two more games in the Hornets' season, you're likely stacking CP3 and David West back-to-back. If for some reason you think one of those two All-Stars is letting you down, it's all Peja, all the way. I wouldn't go there, but do how you do.

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